Using Design of Experiments (DOE) for Decision Analysis

We take an engineering design approach to a problem of the artificial - corporate decision-analysis under uncertainty. We use Design of Experiments (DOE) to understand the behaviour of systems within which decisions are made and to estimate the consequences of alternative decisions. The experiments are a systematically constructed class of gedanken (thought) experiments comparable to “what if” studies, but organized to span the entire space of controllable and uncontrollable options. We therefore develop a debiasing protocol to forecast and elicit data. We consider the composite organization, their knowledge, data bases, formal and informal procedures as a measurement system. We use Gage theory from Measurement System Analysis (MSA) to analyze the quality of the data, the measurement system, and its results. We report on an in situ company experiment. Results support the statistical validity and managerial efficacy of our method. Method-evaluation criteria also indicate the validity of our method. Surprisingly, the experiments result in representations of near-decomposable systems. This suggests that executives scale corporate problems for analyses and decision-making. This work introduces DOE and MSA to the management sciences and shows how it can be effective to executive decision making

Recombination dramatically speeds up evolution of finite populations

We study the role of recombination, as practiced by genetically-competent bacteria, in speeding up Darwinian evolution. This is done by adding a new process to a previously-studied Markov model of evolution on a smooth fitness landscape; this new process allows alleles to be exchanged with those in the surrounding medium. Our results, both numerical and analytic, indicate that for a wide range of intermediate population sizes, recombination dramatically speeds up the evolutionary advance

Ex Ante Evaluation and Improvement of Forecasts

The dominant approach reported in the literature is to evaluate forecasts after the fact. We take a different approach, we present a way to evaluate and Improve forecasts before the fact. We reconceptualize forecasts as thought experiments grounded on mental models. We show the results of our process which debiases and reduces the asymmetry of forecasters’ mental models. We also reconceptualize forecasting as measurements with errors. And to analyze and improve the entire forecasting process as a system, we use the methods of Design of Experiments (DOE) and Gage R&R from Measurement System Analysis (MSA). We show the results of our analyses using two new metrics, repeatability and reproducibility and discuss new opportunities for research

Attribution of human-induced dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in extreme weather events

This is the final version. Available on open access from IOP Publishing via the DOI in this recordWe present a new method that allows a separation of the attribution of human influence in extreme events into changes in atmospheric flows and changes in other processes. Assuming two data sets of model simulations or observations representing a natural, or 'counter-factual' climate, and the actual, or 'factual' climate, we show how flow analogs used across data sets can provide quantitative estimates of each contribution to the changes in probabilities of extreme events. We apply this method to the extreme January precipitation amounts in Southern UK such as were observed in the winter of 2013/2014. Using large ensembles of an atmospheric model forced by factual and counterfactual sea surface temperatures, we demonstrate that about a third of the increase in January precipitation amounts can be attributed to changes in weather circulation patterns and two thirds of the increase to thermodynamic changes. This method can be generalized to many classes of events and regions and provides, in the above case study, similar results to those obtained in Schaller et al (2016 Nat. Clim. Change 6 627-34) who used a simple circulation index, describing only a local feature of the circulation, as in other methods using circulation indices (van Ulden and van Oldenborgh 2006 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6 863-81).European Union FP7French Ministry of EcologyEuropean Research Council (ERC

Joint evolution of multiple social traits: a kin selection analysis

General models of the evolution of cooperation, altruism and other social behaviours have focused almost entirely on single traits, whereas it is clear that social traits commonly interact. We develop a general kin-selection framework for the evolution of social behaviours in multiple dimensions. We show that whenever there are interactions among social traits new behaviours can emerge that are not predicted by one-dimensional analyses. For example, a prohibitively costly cooperative trait can ultimately be favoured owing to initial evolution in other (cheaper) social traits that in turn change the cost-benefit ratio of the original trait. To understand these behaviours, we use a two-dimensional stability criterion that can be viewed as an extension of Hamilton's rule. Our principal example is the social dilemma posed by, first, the construction and, second, the exploitation of a shared public good. We find that, contrary to the separate one-dimensional analyses, evolutionary feedback between the two traits can cause an increase in the equilibrium level of selfish exploitation with increasing relatedness, while both social (production plus exploitation) and asocial (neither) strategies can be locally stable. Our results demonstrate the importance of emergent stability properties of multidimensional social dilemmas, as one-dimensional stability in all component dimensions can conceal multidimensional instability

Quantum phase transition in the dioptase magnetic lattice

The study of quantum phase transitions, which are zero-temperature phase transitions between distinct states of matter, is of current interest in research since it allows for a description of low-temperature properties based on universal relations. Here we show that the crystal green dioptase Cu_6Si_6O_18 . 6H_2O, known to the ancient Roman as the gem of Venus, has a magnetic crystal structure, formed by the Cu(II) ions, which allows for a quantum phase transition between an antiferromagnetically ordered state and a quantum spin liquid.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, EPL, in pres

Analytical study of the effect of recombination on evolution via DNA shuffling

We investigate a multi-locus evolutionary model which is based on the DNA shuffling protocol widely applied in \textit{in vitro} directed evolution. This model incorporates selection, recombination and point mutations. The simplicity of the model allows us to obtain a full analytical treatment of both its dynamical and equilibrium properties, for the case of an infinite population. We also briefly discuss finite population size corrections

Analytic approach to the evolutionary effects of genetic exchange

We present an approximate analytic study of our previously introduced model of evolution including the effects of genetic exchange. This model is motivated by the process of bacterial transformation. We solve for the velocity, the rate of increase of fitness, as a function of the fixed population size, $N$. We find the velocity increases with $\ln N$, eventually saturated at an $N$ which depends on the strength of the recombination process. The analytical treatment is seen to agree well with direct numerical simulations of our model equations

Benchmarking the Particle Background in the Large Hadron Collider Experiments

Background benchmarking measurements have been made to check the low-energy processes which will contribute via nuclear reactions to the radiation background in the LHC experiments at CERN. Previously these processes were only evaluated with Monte Carlo simulations, estimated to be reliable within an uncertainty factor of 2.5. Measurements were carried out in an experimental set-up comparable to the shielding of ATLAS, one of the general-purpose experiments at LHC. The absolute yield and spectral measurements of photons and neutrons emanating from the final stages of the hadronic showers were made with a Bi_4Ge_3O_{12} (BGO) detector. The particle transport code FLUKA was used for detailed simulations. Comparison between measurements and simulations show that they agree within 20% and hence the uncertainty factor resulting from the shower processes can be reduced to a factor of 1.2

Cosmological stretching of perturbations on a cosmic string

We investigate the effects of cosmological expansion on the spectrum of small-scale structure on a cosmic string. We simulate the evolution of a string with two modes that differ in wavelength by one order of magnitude. Once the short mode is inside the horizon, we find that its physical amplitude remains unchanged, in spite of the fact that its comoving wavelength decreases as the longer mode enters the horizon. Thus the ratio of amplitude to wavelength for the short mode becomes larger than it would be in the absence of the long mode.Comment: 11 pages, 5 postscript figure